Lajan yo optimis sou copper sektè
Denye semèn, 2023 chak trimès report fon te divilge, ak fon an pozisyon ajisteman trends ak pozisyon adisyon te vin focus nan mache atansyon. Looking nan endistri segman% 2c aktif ekite fon ogmante kenbe copper sektè 22procyclical" nonferr metal endistri katriyèm trimès la.
Nan katriyèm 2023, a seri domestik %"stabilizasyon kwasans 22 règleman akselere ak ekonomi an domestik te montre siy estabilizasyon estabilizasyon rekiperasyon rekipere, 's atant domestik ekonomik rekiperasyon ogmante. Galaksi Securities rechèch report aktif ekite fon gen lou kenbe A-pataje ki pa ferrous metal endistri kontablite 2.23% mache kapitalizasyon stock envestisman. Yo gen ogmante kenbe ki pa ferraj metal endistri de de konsekitif trimès 2c espesyalman moun ki ak pi gwo ekonomik relevance. Copper plak.
Zhang Weixin, senior analyst nonferr metal CITIC Futures, te di alontèm faktè ekite ekite fon optimis optimis copper sektè optimis prospects g transfòmasyon nan global enèji enèji ki gen ladan green jenerasyon enèji enèji machin 2c etc., ki gen te pote gwo demand demand atant , ekipman pou relasyon espere rete an sante tèm la.
"Looking at the entire market, this is a sector with relatively high certainty. Especially when China's equity market performance is weak and lacks bright spots in 2023, the copper sector has both offensive and defensive attributes." Zhang Weixin analyzed that in the short term, the market is optimistic Expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, domestic support policies and tight supply of concentrates are expected to bring positive results to the outlook for copper prices, which is expected to boost the stock prices of related stocks. Since October 2023, the market has been trading on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the U.S. economic soft landing expectation. Copper prices have been trending strongly, and the recent domestic unexpected reserve requirement ratio reduction policy is also boosting market sentiment. A series of changes since the end of August 2023 Supportive policies are expected to create an enrichment effect and improve the economic situation in early 2024. At the industrial level, affected by the shutdown of overseas copper mines, domestic smelting capacity has become excessive. The current TC index of raw material imports has fallen below the cost line of most refineries, triggering large-scale early maintenance or production reduction of refineries after the holiday, causing a contraction in the supply of refined copper. Form support for copper prices.
Xiao Jing, a non-ferrous metals researcher at SDIC Essence Futures, believes that public funds are optimistic about the non-ferrous copper sector mainly because of the relative scarcity and concentration of resource attributes and the long-term and more guaranteed potential growth rate of copper in the context of global carbon-neutral transformation. Not only is the mining end receiving attention, but the layout of copper smelting capacity, whose operating performance mainly revolves around "processing fees," has also received certain attention. New energy switching, on the one hand, is the new energy vehicle battery system, on the other hand, it is the continuous upgrading of green power supply and power grid. In this process, unlike the country-specific natural resource endowments that fossil energy relies on, the essence of new energy is the competition between industrial equipment technology and manufacturing. The game has shifted from pure resource advantages to the entire upstream and downstream scenarios of the product industry chain, and electrolytic copper has a new role in the new energy industry. The proportion of energy consumption is increasing year by year. According to estimates, the copper consumption in new energy has reached 13% in 2023 and will reach 15% in 2024. It will contribute a high and certain marginal growth rate to all demands, making the electrolytic copper smelting capacity itself, like the upstream copper refinery. Battery-grade copper foil for mines and terminals also has certain supply chain configuration attributes. The reshaping of the global supply chain after the epidemic has given varying degrees of attention to each production link. Last year, the International Energy Agency's carbon neutrality report analyzed the concentration of global copper smelting and refining capacity by country, just like the distribution of copper mines. China has a huge production capacity advantage in copper smelting.
"Among copper ki nan lis sib sa yo ak wo pwòp tèt ou-ase pousantaj copper mines moun moun moun mining dwa dwa dwa resan yo toujou pi gwo envestisman otspo. Sik ke mache a se kounye a peye atansyon coper opere sik cycle, men copper konsantre ekipman pou sik kopye mine dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa dwa enterè Li te pran lwen pwofi endistri a chèn chèn enpak copper pri fluctuations relativman limite." Xiao Jing te di.
The International Copper Research Group believes that the realization period for this wave of global copper concentrate production increases will begin in 2021. The expansion of production during the bull market 10 years ago has ensured a relatively high growth rate of copper concentrates in recent years. According to the current model, it is generally believed that 2025, After 2026, the global copper concentrate production expansion cycle will end, and the annual growth rate of copper concentrate supply may return to a low growth rate of around 1% per year, and the increase in new effective costs will become more obvious after the epidemic. Chilean copper mines in 2023 The average complete cost of the industry has reached 2.916 US dollars/pound, and some new production capacities are even more expensive, which means that copper prices must be high enough to promote the expansion of new production capacity in order to catch up with the global 2%-2.5% driven by the transformation of new energy in the medium and long term. potential consumption growth rate.
Xiao Jing te di katriyèm katriyèm ane pase a 2c Premye Quantum's Cobre Panam� copper mine ak Anglo Ameriken Resous bese 2024 pwodiksyon gidans ka pote 300,{%. 7b2}}level rediksyon rediksyon ki gen atire fò mache koup koup 25 domestik kapasite nan 2023, pwodiksyon Based 12% ane pase a ane, li toujou espere grow 6% 8% 2024. adition, Indonesia ak india yo bilding building pwòp yo kopye rafine kapasite kapasite founiti nan konsantre nan Azi kontinye sere.
Copper fondamantal pral montre fò fò rezolisyon
Jije soti nan aktyèl fondamantal 2c global copper ka face founi bay mank Dapre dènye done rele World Bureau Metal Estatistik (WBMS)" 2c global rafine pwodiksyon Novanm 2023 te 2.3086 milyon tòn, konsomasyon te 2.4013 milyon tòn, ak te yon ekipman ekipman nan 92,600 tòn. Soti nan Janvye Novanm 2023, global rafine copper pwodiksyon te 25.0461 milyon tòn, konsomasyon te 25.1491 milyon tòn, ak te yon ekipman pou 103,000%tòn.
Zhang Weixin analyzed that overall, the fundamentals of copper will still show strong resilience in 2024, and it will be difficult to experience a large oversupply. The main reason is that the continued growth of new energy consumption and supply-side disturbances have led to a slowdown in supply growth. It is expected that Shanghai copper will have an "N-shaped" trend in 2024. Copper prices can remain strong in the short term, decline in the medium term, and are expected to rebound in the end, with the overall price center moving downward throughout the year. In the short term, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and soft landings, domestic policy expectations, and tight expectations brought about by supply disturbances support copper prices to continue to oscillate at high levels and strong. However, the current seasonal accumulation pressure has begun to be transmitted. Later, as the Federal Reserve postpones interest rate cuts, the US economic adjustment pressure emerges, and the effect of domestic policy implementation is less than expected, Shanghai Copper will face greater downward pressure. As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the domestic economy continues to recover, copper prices are expected to rebound. However, the unilateral decline of the US dollar during the interest rate cut cycle means that the RMB appreciates, and Shanghai Copper faces pressure to make up for the decline, limiting the room for rebound.
Xiao Jing believes that the core of copper price analysis in 2024 is consumption. Domestic traditional home appliances sector and new energy photovoltaic power supply sector are both at risk of accelerating decline. The relatively promising power grid sector is actually dominated by continuous investment. The State Grid's expected investment scale of more than 500 billion yuan reflects this. In 2024, the actual growth rate of domestic copper consumption may be close to half of this year's GDP growth rate, returning to the potential growth rate of about 2%-3%. Domestic copper consumption has weakened, and the pressure on processing fees has overlapped, indicating that domestic self-produced copper production will also return to normal growth. "We may see some reductions in refinery capacity, but the impact on copper prices needs to be combined with the demand rhythm and macro sentiment. The market's expectations for China's refined copper production in 2024 will be reduced accordingly."
Gade copper konsantre suple sik pou kont li nan 2c Xiao Jing Jing yon gwo ogmante konsantre reyalize 2024. pase a ane, 2c enstitisyon enstitisyon 27 atant copper konsantre gen jeneralman te soti nan 600,{2}}% 800,{4{4} Starting diminye. Nan Oktòb Oktòb ane pase a ICSG kwè global copper konsantre ogmante 800% 2c000 tòn 2024. Adding &a ekipman 400,000 tòn ka reyalize ane sa a Recent resan nefited soti nan nouvo enèji sektè a reyalite, li te gen ki gen eksperyans yon bès pwosesis frè nan 2023. Sa a ane, opere presyon main main fas a enstalasyon sektè soti nan konsomasyon.
"2024 se yon tranzisyon ane, ak kwiv pri ale depase 70,{2{2}} yuan/ton. Apre gen eksperyans low volatilité 2023, nou yo plis enkline atann copper fluctuations menm jan ak 2022% 2c ki se, nou peye atansyon Downward risk gen ladan fluctuations US$7,{{6{6%. 7d/ton.% 22 Xiao Jing kwè refwadisman Lachin's kwiv konsomasyon, mou aterisaj nan Ewopeyen ak Ameriken ekonomi ekonomi Federal Rezèv 27s enterè koupe, ak segondè ajisteman U.S. stock stock deklanche deklanche chanjman copper pri.
Everbright Securities pwente endistri a fas alontèm sluggish kapital depans kwasans refize kwiv oswa klas klas ak future future increments limite. menm la menm menm tan, afekte entèferans pousantaj lage copper mine mine ekipman mwens mwens mwens pase espere, copper pri center espere mouvman upward upward 2024.
Sinolink Securities deklare kwasans global mine mine limite limite 2024, dezòd dezòd soti nan dirijan mining pral entansifye. elektwolitic copper espere mentni mentni yon sere balans ant ekipman pou ak demann macro nivo 2c aktyèl la tèm enflasyon Yo fèmen Federal Rezèv Rezèv enflasyon sib la desann presyon sou copper pri se espere limite. Si Federal Rezèv kòmanse koupe to enterè lè enflasyon nivo pa rive 2%, senaryo a mou mou mou aterisaj ekonomi ekonomi senaryo a mou mou aterisaj mou ekonomi ekonomi an ekonomi an senaryo a mou mou aterisaj ekonomi ekonomi an ekonomi an senaryo a mou mou aterisaj ekonomi ekonomi an ekonomi an senaryo a mou mou aterisaj ekonomi ekonomi an ekonomi an Chinwa ak US US ekonomi pral reyalize resonance ak upward, copper pri yo round leve% 2c copper pri center espere mouvman 9,{{4% 7d},{{5}%US dola tòn.
